By Paolo von Schirach
President, Global Policy Institute; Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bay Atlantic University, both in Washington, DC
Unlike in Europe, Japan or China, in America passenger railways have been neglected. While this may change in the future, at this time there are no fast trains networks. The only exception is the “Eastern Corridor” (Washington, DC – New York City – Boston) that is served by semi-fast trains. For the rest of the large country, to travel from point A to point B Americans have essentially two choices: drive or fly. However, large commercial carriers do not fly to small cities.
And here is the business opportunity for innovators who are busy producing short haul electric airplanes that would fly short distances relying on a vast network of underutilized small airports. In the U.S. there are several airplane manufacturers in this new space. Among them: Beta Technologies, Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Airflow, and Pyka, all of them California based. But big giants like Boeing and Airbus in Europe are also working on their electric planes prototypes.
Large electric airplanes flying long distances are technically and financially impossible. They would make no economic sense for airlines. The main problem is the weight of the batteries. To fly long distances, a large airplane would need many large batteries weighing several tons. With this huge weight handicap, it would be impossible to carry many passengers. Airlines could not make any money.
Whereas for short flights the picture changes entirely. We are talking about 250 miles, or about 400 km, on a small airplane powered by an electric motor that could carry 7 to 9 passengers.
And why would anybody want to start this type of business? Very simple. There must be many people who would rather not drive 3 or 5 hours to get to a destination not served by traditional commercial air carriers. A short flight on an electric airplane could be relatively inexpensive, because the small airlines would have much lower operating costs compared to carriers operating turboprops, and therefore would be profitable, even charging low prices for their tickets.
How could they be profitable? Well, to begin with, because of much lower fuel cost. Charging the batteries of the airplane would cost a few dollars. Refueling a turbo-prop plane for the same trip costs several hundreds of dollars. Besides, electric motors are low maintenance. They do not require the constant overhaul of conventional engines. Therefore, given lower operating costs, this could be a good business, considering that regional airlines flying electric planes could take advantage of about 5,000 underutilized small airport in the U.S.. (Commercial carriers limit their operations to about 30 large U.S. airports).
I a word, the basic infrastructure needed for this new business is already there, ready to be used. New regional carriers flying low cost electric planes will have to identify the most promising routes and then convince people who would normally drive to take their planes instead, for speed and convenience.
And there is more. Some companies are working on vertical takeoff and landing electric planes that would be a combination of helicopter and airplane. They could be used as small cargo planes to deliver medical equipment or other important merchandise on a helipad in an urban area. Companies operating them would have an advantage because their operating costs would be much lower than those associated with helicopter services. Same arguments apply. Much lower fuel costs. Lower maintenance costs.
Is this a small transportation revolution in the making? Time will tell. But the technology for reliable small electric planes is there. Some are only a few steps away from certification. And the cost analysis suggests that new airlines focused on short haul services using electric aircraft will be profitable.
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